YU Lu, LI Ting, DAVID López-Carr, HU Guihua, WU Di, QI Li
Accepted: 2024-07-08
This article aims to introduce the demographic analysis model of the United States and establish a demographic analysis model, which is suitable for application in China. Literature interpretation and probability modeling methods is used to study demographic analysis models and related issues. The results show that the research of demographic analysis model in China is still in its infancy, and the establishment of demographic analysis model in China can not copy the American demographic analysis model, but should be improved and innovated in combination with the actual situation in China; The establishment of demographic analysis models can be divided into two levels. One is to establish a demographic analysis model based on comprehensive data, without calculating sampling variance, the other is to establish a demographic analysis model based on sampling survey data, which needs to calculate its sampling variance by jack knife method approximately; The advantage of the demographic analysis model is that it fully utilizes population administrative record data such as birth, death, and international migration, saves data collection costs, and is independent of the population census, the disadvantage is that the estimation results are uncertain, especially with significant differences in the estimated results of international net migration count. The demographic analysis model is expected to be applied to estimate the net error of China's 2030 population census, creating a precedent for China to use demographic analysis model in this field.