BAI Yun, YAN Xin, ZENG Bo, ZHU Bangzhu
Accepted: 2025-12-01
Accurate forecasting of carbon trading prices is crucial for market decision-making and risk management, yet existing methods face dual challenges: computational resource waste caused by cross-market repetitive modeling and insufficient forecasting accuracy in emerging markets due to data scarcity. To address the limitations of conventional transfer learning, including the imbalance between feature alignment and forecasting accuracy, as well as migration direction bias induced by fixed-weight mechanisms, this paper proposes a dynamic transfer optimization-based TimesNet model. First, a TimesNet network is pre-trained on source domain data to capture universal temporal features, addressing the deficiency of traditional models in cross-scale interaction modeling. Second, a dynamic transfer loss function is designed, incorporating a time-varying weighting mechanism to balance the cross-domain distribution loss and regression loss, thereby resolving the migration direction bias inherent in static strategies. Finally, model parameters are optimized via backpropagation to derive the TimesNet transfer forecasting model. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves lower error metrics compared to direct prediction in the target domain, exhibiting particularly strong robustness in data-scarce environments. For instance, when only 30% of the target domain data is used for fine-tuning, the transfer learning model shows notable performance advantages, with reductions in RMSE, MAE, and MAPE by 0.012, 0.011, and 0.25%, respectively. Moreover, compared to static transfer strategies, the dynamic mechanism effectively avoids interference from premature feature alignment on prediction tasks. Even with only 10% of target domain data for fine-tuning, the method consistently outperforms two static transfer strategies across RMSE, MAE, and MAPE, achieving reductions of 0.024/0.024, 0.024/0.021, and 10.27%/10.17%, respectively. To further evaluate the model performance, the DM tests were employed to verify forecasting reliability, and SHAP analysis was conducted to interpret model outputs. Results confirm that the forecasts align with realistic market behavior logic. This study establishes an interpretable transfer learning framework for carbon price forecasting, while expanding theoretical methodologies and practical tools for applying transfer learning to small-sample financial time-series scenarios.