WU Yan, TANG Zhenxiao, PEI Lihong, CAO Yang, SHAO Mingjie, KANG Yu, ZHAO Yanlong
Journal of Systems Science & Complexity.
Accepted: 2026-04-14
Accurate forecasting of urban traffic flow across different time horizons is crucial in intelligent transportation systems. Due to the spatiotemporal aliasing of traffic emissions, traditional spatiotemporal graph modeling methods often suffer from cascading error amplification during long-term inference. It remains a challenge to balance short-term fluctuations with long-term trends and ensure long-term evolution patterns aren’t overshadowed to enhance the forecasting reliability. To address it, we propose a Scale-Disentangled Spatio-Temporal Modeling (SDSTM) framework for long-term traffic emission forecasting. It enhances data separability by lifting data from the non-linear raw space into a higher-dimensional linear space, leveraging predictability differences to decompose and fuse multi-scale features remaining independent yet complementary. Specifically, SDSTM introduces a dual-stream feature decomposition strategy based on the Koopman theory. It lifts the scale-entangled spatiotemporal dynamics into an approximate linear space via Koopman operators and delineates the predictability boundary using gated wavelet decomposition. Furthermore, rigorous theoretical justifications validate the framework design, showing that the product terms induced by the dual-stream decomposition are approximately orthogonal, and the gated dynamic component is stable and non-expansive. Experiments on a road-level traffic emission dataset within Xi’an’s Second Ring Road demonstrate that SDSTM achieves state-of-the-art performance, with an average improvement of 11.65% for long-term forecasting.