CONSTRUCTING THE DECISION MODEL BASED ON BAYES

Peng Yan, Feng Xingxing

Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (9) : 1487-1496.

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Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (9) : 1487-1496. DOI: 10.12341/jssms12903

CONSTRUCTING THE DECISION MODEL BASED ON BAYES

  • Peng Yan1, Feng Xingxing2
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Abstract

The strategy decision is the core of enterprise management. Whether or not the enterprise strategy will work, it would directly impact a short-term, or even a long-term, development of an enterprise. The goal of this paper is to establish a new strategic decision model with Bayesian-based approaches, which combine the Bayesian Network with Balanced Scorecard theory. Firstly, starting from the balanced scorecard four dimensions principle, this study constructs the strategic decision model preliminarily. Secondly, it converts the BSC strategic decision map into a Bayesian Network model according to the cause-result relationships existing in both the strategic decision map and Bayesian network. With the study of the Bayesian network structure learning algorithm, we choose the K2 algorithm to optimize the strategy model by deleting some non-critical nodes. Finally, the paper proves the precision and practicability of the model by comparing the BSC index systems with a plurality of specialists' index in various fields.

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Peng Yan , Feng Xingxing. CONSTRUCTING THE DECISION MODEL BASED ON BAYES. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2016, 36(9): 1487-1496 https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms12903
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