BUSINESS CYCLE TRACER: A NEW APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS

ZHANG Jiawei;ZHANG Xun;WANG Jue;OU Bianling;WANG Shouyang

Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2) : 241-250.

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中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院期刊网
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Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2) : 241-250. DOI: 10.12341/jssms09459
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BUSINESS CYCLE TRACER: A NEW APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS

  • ZHANG Jiawei, ZHANG Xun, WANG Jue, OU Bianling, WANG Shouyang
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Abstract

In this paper, we firstly introduce and use business cycle tracer approach into China's business cycle analysis from the aspects of macroeconomic and industry analysis. Business cycle tracer is a new approach derived from business cycle clock to analysis the economic performance. The state of the business cycle is determined by tracing a selection of key macro-economic indicators. It is a newly approach used mainly in macroeconomic analysis. We introduce it in industry analysis. In order to overcome some problems in the existing business cycle tracer in industry analysis, we improve it through combining with traditional leading indicator. The empirical result shows the effectiveners of the business cycle tracer in both macroeconomic analysis and industry analysis, which is a very nice improvement complement to the existing business cycle analysis tool.

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Business cycle tracer / business cycle analysis / business cycle / industry analysis.

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ZHANG Jiawei , ZHANG Xun , WANG Jue , OU Bianling , WANG Shouyang. BUSINESS CYCLE TRACER: A NEW APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2011, 31(2): 241-250 https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms09459
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