电力消费、产业结构与经济增长的关系——Large基于甘肃省地级市数据面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型的研究

doi:10.12341/jssms21249

系统科学与数学 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3): 599-613.DOI: 10.12341/jssms21249

电力消费、产业结构与经济增长的关系——Large基于甘肃省地级市数据面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型的研究

刘淳¹, 马超¹, 冯永春¹, 王著秀²

1. 国网甘肃省电力公司, 兰州 730000;
2. 国网甘肃省电力公司经济技术研究院, 兰州 730000

收稿日期:2021-05-14 修回日期:2021-10-10 出版日期:2022-04-20 发布日期:2022-04-20
通讯作者: 王著秀,Email:esther_0506@163.com.

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刘淳, 马超, 冯永春, 王著秀. 电力消费、产业结构与经济增长的关系——Large基于甘肃省地级市数据面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型的研究[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2022, 42(3): 599-613.

LIU Chun, MA Chao, FENG Yongchun, WANG Zhuxiu. Relationship Among Electricity Consumption, Industrial Structure and Economic Growth: Analysis Based on Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) Model of Gansu Urban Data[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2022, 42(3): 599-613.

Relationship Among Electricity Consumption, Industrial Structure and Economic Growth: Analysis Based on Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) Model of Gansu Urban Data

LIU Chun¹, MA Chao¹, FENG Yongchun¹, WANG Zhuxiu²

1. State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730000;
2. Gansu Electric Power Economic and Technology Research Institute, Lanzhou 730000

Received:2021-05-14 Revised:2021-10-10 Online:2022-04-20 Published:2022-04-20

电力作为支撑经济发展的基础性产业，电力消费与产业结构和经济增长间关系密切.因此，文章基于甘肃省地级市2004--2018年城市面板数据，运用面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型，实证检验了甘肃省产业结构、电力消费与经济增长之间的因果关系.研究结果表明：甘肃省产业结构和经济增长之间相互影响，经济增长对电力消费具有正向促进作用，全社会固定资产投资推动经济增长和产业结构优化.未来甘肃省的经济发展应秉持"稳增长、调结构"的目标，通过政策驱动风电和光电等清洁能源的快速发展，提高能源投资和能源利用效率，引导和扶持第三产业发展，实现甘肃产业结构优化、经济发展和节能减排的多重目标.

关键词： 经济增长, 电力消费, 产业结构, 面板向量自回归模型(PVAR), 广义矩估计(GMM)

As the basic industry for economic development, electricity consumption is closely related to industrial structure and economic growth. Based on the panel data from 2004 to 2018, this paper empirically tests the causal relationship among industrial structure, power consumption and economic growth in Gansu Province by using panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model. The result shows that, the industrial structure and economic growth influence each other in Gansu Province. Economic growth has a positive effect on electricity consumption, and fixed asset investment throughout the country has a positive effect on economic growth and industrial structure optimization. The findings of this paper show that we should adhere to the economic development goal of steady growth and structural adjustment, and vigorously develop clean energy such as wind energy and solar energy through policy guidance. At the same time, we should also improve the efficiency of energy investment and utilization, and guide and support the development of the tertiary industry to realize the multiple goals of industrial structure optimization, energy conservation, emission reduction, and economic development in Gansu.

Key words: Electricity consumption, economic growth, industrial structure, PVAR model, GMM

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