论文
WANG Shouyang;YU Lean;K.K.Lai
Journal of Systems Science and Complexity.
2005, 18(2):
145-166.
The difficulty in crude oil price forecasting, due to inherent complexity, has
attracted much attention of academic researchers and business practitioners. Various
methods have been tried to solve the problem of forecasting crude oil prices.
However, all of the existing models of prediction can not meet practical needs. Very
recently, Wang and Yu proposed a new methodology for handling complex systems---TEI@I
methodology by means of a systematic integration of text mining, econometrics and
intelligent techniques. Within the framework of TEI@I methodology, econometrical
models are used to model the linear components of crude oil price time series (i.e.,
main trends) while nonlinear components of crude oil price time series (i.e., error
terms) are modelled by using artificial neural network (ANN) models. In addition, the
impact of irregular and infrequent future events on crude oil price is explored using
web-based text mining (WTM) and rule-based expert systems (RES) techniques. Thus, a
fully novel nonlinear integrated forecasting approach with error correction and
judgmental adjustment is formulated to improve prediction performance within the
framework of the TEI@I methodology. The proposed methodology and the novel
forecasting approach are illustrated via an example.