产出不确定下易逝品限量预售鲁棒策略分析

doi:10.12341/jssms22428

系统科学与数学 ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4): 898-913.DOI: 10.12341/jssms22428

• • 上一篇

产出不确定下易逝品限量预售鲁棒策略分析

孙彩虹¹, 李振^2,3, 于辉⁴

1. 重庆工商大学会计学院, 重庆 400067;
2. 湖北省地震局, 武汉 430071;
3. 重庆工商大学工商管理学院, 重庆 400067;
4. 重庆大学经济与工商管理学院, 重庆 400044

收稿日期:2022-06-11 修回日期:2022-09-29 发布日期:2023-05-18
通讯作者: 孙彩虹, Email:caihongsun@ctbu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72172019, 71872021), 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(21YJA630080), 重庆市教委自然科学重点项目(KJZD-K202200802), 重庆市研究生科研创新项目(CYS20310)资助课题.

PDF ( 11 ) 引用

孙彩虹, 李振, 于辉. 产出不确定下易逝品限量预售鲁棒策略分析[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2023, 43(4): 898-913.

SUN Caihong, LI Zhen, YU Hui. Robust Strategy Analysis of Capacity Rationing in Advance Selling About Perishable Products Under Yield Uncertainty[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2023, 43(4): 898-913.

Robust Strategy Analysis of Capacity Rationing in Advance Selling About Perishable Products Under Yield Uncertainty

SUN Caihong¹, LI Zhen^2,3, YU Hui⁴

1. School of Accountancy, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067;
2. Hubei Earthquake Agency, Wuhan 430071;
3. School of Business Administration, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067;
4. School of Economies and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044

Received:2022-06-11 Revised:2022-09-29 Published:2023-05-18

限量预售是融合供需对接而成的复合型销售模式, 正受到企业上市易逝品的青睐. 在产出不确定环境下, 基于易逝品随机产出因子部分信息, 构建生产商在正常销售前引入限量预售的两阶段鲁棒报童模型, 在鲁棒决策下探讨了预售策略. 研究表明: 限量预售既能纾解产出不确定风险导致的供需矛盾, 又能减小该风险对期望利润带来的冲击; 限量预售模式选择的阈值条件由易逝品随机产出因子变异系数, 两阶段销售价格及需求影响因子共同权衡确定. 同时, 发现鲁棒最优预售量及其影响因素并提供了策略建议.

关键词： 限量预售, 易逝品, 产出不确定, 鲁棒分析

Capacity rationing in advance selling, a kind of complex selling model based on joint connection between supply and demand, is favored by enterprises to launch perishable products. To study the advance-selling strategy under the circumstance of yield uncertainty, a two-period robust newsvendor model is constructed, in which the manufacturer introduces capacity rationing in advance selling into regular selling. With the support of the robust decision, the model is studied on the basis of partial information of perishable products’ stochastic proportional yield. It is found that capacity rationing in advance selling can not only relieve the contradiction between supply and demand, caused by the yield-uncertainty risk, but also reduce the impact of this risk on expected profits. The threshold condition of whether to select capacity rationing in advance selling is determined by the coefficient of variation of stochastic proportional yield, two–period sales price and demand impact factor about perishable products. At the same time, the robust optimal advance-selling quantity and its influence factors are shown and the relevant strategy suggestions are offered.

Key words: Capacity rationing in advance selling, perishable products, yield uncertainty, robust analysis

MR(2010)主题分类:

00A71

分享此文:

[1] Li C H, Zhang F Q. Advance demand information, price discrimination, and preorder strategies. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2013, 15(1):57-71.
[2] 计国君, 孙忠锋. 考虑参照价格效应及异质性消费者的预售决策. 系统工程理论与实践, 2018, 38(12):3059-3070. (Ji G J, Sun Z F. Advance selling with reference price effect and consumer heterogeneity. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2018, 38(12):3059-3070.)
[3] Liu Q, Van Ryzin G J. Strategic capacity rationing to induce early purchases. Management Science, 2008, 54(6):1115-1131.
[4] Yu M, Ahn H S, Kapuscinski R. Rationing capacity in advance selling to signal quality. Management Science, 2015, 61(3):560-577.
[5] Seref M M H, Seref O, Alptekinoglu A, et al. Advance selling to strategic consumers. Computer Management Science, 2016, 13(4):597-626.
[6] 计国君, 孙忠锋, 杨光勇, 等. 基于消费者参照价格效应的限量预售策略研究. 管理工程学报, 2021, 35(4):178-189. (Ji G J, Sun Z F, Yang G Y, et al. Advance selling with consumer reference price effect and limited advance sales. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 2021, 35(4):178-189.)
[7] Xie J H, Shugan S M. Electronic tickets, smart cards, and online prepayments:When and how to advance sell. Marketing Science, 2001, 20(3):219-243.
[8] Yu M, Kapuscinski R, Ahn H S. Advance selling:Effects of interdependent consumer valuations and seller's capacity. Management Science, 2015, 61(9):2100-2117.
[9] 周雄伟, 李俊, 蔡丹, 等. 预售背景下易逝品销售的时间策略研究. 中国管理科学, 2017, 25(6):91-100. (Zhou X W, Li J, Cai D, et al. Marketing time strategy of advance selling for perishable goods. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017, 25(6):91-100.)
[10] 林志炳, 周正勇, 吴少雄. 基于策略顾客和网络外部性的零售商预售. 工业工程, 2015, 18(2):66-72, 107. (Lin Z B, Zhou Z Y, Wu S X. Advance selling in the presence of strategic consumers and network externality. Industrial Engineering Journal, 2015, 18(2):66-72, 107.)
[11] Ye T F, Zhao Y. Quality choice and capacity rationing in advance selling. Journal of Industrial & Management Optimization, 2021, 17(6):3049-3084.
[12] 官振中. 易逝性高科技产品收益管理定价的随机模型研究. 博士论文. 西南交通大学, 成都, 2006. (Guan Z Z. Stochastic models for pricing perishable high technology products with revenue management. Doctor Thesis. Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 2006.)
[13] Weatherford L R, Bodily S E. A taxonomy and research overview of perishable-asset revenue management:Yield management, overbooking, and pricing. Operations Research, 1992, 40(5):831-844.
[14] Boyabatli O, Nasiry J, Zhou Y F. Crop planning in sustainable agriculture:Dynamic farmland allocation in the presence of crop rotation benefits. Management Science, 2019, 65(5):2060-2076.
[15] 蔡建湖, 邓丽丽, 黄卫来, 等. 产出不确定环境下供应链竞争与协调研究综述. 系统工程学报, 2017, 32(4):547-556. (Cai J H, Deng L L, Huang W L, et al. Review on supply chain competitions and mechanisms under yield uncertainty. Journal of Systems Engineering, 2017, 32(4):547-556.)
[16] 孙彩虹, 王蕾, 于辉. 买断契约下新产品网络预售的鲁棒定价策略. 计算机集成制造系统, 2018, 24(9):2357-2366. (Sun C H, Wang L, Yu H. Robust pricing policy of new product online pre-sale under buyout contract. Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems, 2018, 24(9):2357-2366.)
[17] 于辉, 李西, 王念. "供应侧"鲁棒报童模型. 系统科学与数学, 2017, 37(2):436-448. (Yu H, Li X, Wang N. Robust newsvendor model on the supply side. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2017, 37(2):436-448.)
[18] 王圣东, 汪峻萍, 周永务. 两阶段需求相关的动态易逝品最优订货策略. 控制与决策, 2013, 28(4):579-584. (Wang S D, Wang J P, Zhou Y W. Optimal order policy for dynamic perishable product with demand correlation between two periods. Control and Decision, 2013, 28(4):579-584.)
[19] Scarf H, Arrow K J, Karlin S. A min-max solution of an inventory problem. Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production. California:Stanford University Press, 1958.

[1]	孙彩虹, 唐飞, 于辉. 考虑众筹溢出效应的“众筹+正式销售”鲁棒备货模型[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2022, 42(4): 886-901.
[2]	张玉英，岳德权. 服务员多重休假的易逝品排队库存系统的稳态分析[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2020, 40(8): 1473-1491.
[3]	孙玉玲,石岿然, 周晶. 考虑客户违约情况下的易逝品超售决策研究[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2011, 31(10): 1209-1217.

阅读次数

全文

摘要