应急医疗物资储备与分配问题研究

李珍萍, 张煜炜, 田歆, 房勇

系统科学与数学 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (12) : 3422-3445.

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系统科学与数学 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (12) : 3422-3445. DOI: 10.12341/jssms21294

应急医疗物资储备与分配问题研究

    李珍萍1,2, 张煜炜2, 田歆3,4, 房勇5
作者信息 +

Research on Reserve and Distribution Problem of Emergency Medical Supplies

    LI Zhenping1,2, ZHANG Yuwei2, TIAN Xin3,4, FANG Yong5
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

合理的应急医疗物资储备量和最优的分配方案可以有效降低突发公共卫生事件造成的损失.结合重大突发公共卫生事件的不确定性，研究随机需求下的应急医疗物资储备与分配问题.在事件发生前，确定各个储备库中的医疗物资储备量；在事件发生后，确定有限储备物资的最优分配调运方案.以突发公共卫生事件发生前的医疗物资储备成本（包括采购成本和库存持有成本）和事件发生后的期望损失（包括运输费用和缺货损失）之和极小化为目标建立两阶段随机规划模型，并利用Gurobi软件进行求解.通过不同规模算例的模拟计算并与传统的期望值方法进行对比，验证了随机规划方法的有效性；通过对单位储备成本和单位缺货成本进行灵敏度分析，提出了针对不同类型医疗物资的精准储备与分配策略.最后，利用某地区医用防护服储备问题相关数据进行仿真实验，得到医用防护服的最优储备量，与该地区根据省级卫生应急基本物资储备名录要求确定的医用防护服储备量进行对比，结果显示，按照本文得到的最优方案储备并分配医用防护服，可以使物资储备成本和期望总损失之和降低34%.当最坏场景出现时，需求满足率由5.26%提升到75.43%，总费用降低35.8%.利用文中方法确定医疗物资储备量与应急分配方案可以有效降低物资储备成本与期望损失之和，提高重大突发公共卫生事件发生后的实际需求满足率.

Abstract

The optimal medical material reserve and distribution strategy can effectively reduce the loss caused by the major public health emergency. Based on the suddenness of major public health events and the stochastic demand for medical supplies after an event occurred, the reserve and distribution strategy of medical supplies for major public health emergencies is investigated. The reserve quantity of medical supplies is determined before major public health emergencies occur; and the optimal distribution plans are determined after the event occurs. A two-stage stochastic programming model is formulated to minimized the sum of reserve costs (including purchasing cost and inventory holding cost) of medical material before the public health emergencies occurred and the expected loss after the occurrence of the event (including transportation expenses and shortage loss). The model is solved by the Gurobi solver. By conducting simulations on different scale examples and comparing with the classical expected value model, the effectiveness of stochastic programming method is verified. By conducting sensitivity analysis on parameters of unit reserve cost and unit shortage cost respectively, the optimal reserve strategies of different type of medical supplies are proposed. The simulation experiment is carried out based on the real data of a city and the medical protective clothing as an example, by comparing the optimal reserve and distribution scheme obtained by two-stage stochastic programming method and its actual reserve quantity determined by the requirements of provincial health emergency basic material reserve list, we find that the sum of reserve cost and the expected total loss of our optimal solution will reduce by 34%. The satisfaction rate for the demand under the serious scenario will increase from 5.26% to 75.43%, and the sum of reserve cost and the actual loss will reduce by 35.8%. The medical supplies reserve and emergency distribution scheme determined by our method can greatly reduce the sum of reserve cost and the expected total loss, improve the expected demand satisfaction rate after major public health emergencies, and improve the emergency rescue ability and rapid response level.

关键词

医疗物资 / 随机需求 / 储备量 / 分配方案 / 两阶段随机规划

Key words

Medical supplies / stochastic demand / reserve quantity / distribution scheme / two-stage stochastic programming

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李珍萍 , 张煜炜 , 田歆 , 房勇. 应急医疗物资储备与分配问题研究. 系统科学与数学, 2021, 41(12): 3422-3445. https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms21294
LI Zhenping , ZHANG Yuwei , TIAN Xin , FANG Yong. Research on Reserve and Distribution Problem of Emergency Medical Supplies. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2021, 41(12): 3422-3445 https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms21294
中图分类号： 90B05   

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基金

北京市自然科学基金项目（9212004，9212020，Z180005），国家自然科学基金项目（71771028，71932002），2018年北京市属高校高水平创新团队支持计划项目（IDHT20180510），科技创新服务能力建设-高精尖学科建设（市级），首都经济贸易大学博士研究生学术新人项目（2021XSXR03）资助课题.
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