能源节约型技术进步下碳关税对中国经济与环境的影响---基于动态递归

鲍勤;汤铃;杨烈勋;乔晗

系统科学与数学 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2) : 175-186.

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系统科学与数学 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2) : 175-186. DOI: 10.12341/jssms09456
论文

能源节约型技术进步下碳关税对中国经济与环境的影响---基于动态递归

    鲍勤(1)(2), 汤铃(2)(3), 杨烈勋(4), 乔晗(1)(5)

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HOW WILL ENERGY-SAVING TECHNOLOGY CHANGE THE IMPACTS OF CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENTS ON CHINA: AN ESTIMATION BASED ON DYNAMIC ECURSIVECOMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

    BAO Qin(1)(2), TANG Ling(2)(3), YANG Liexun(4), QIAO Han(1)(5)
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摘要

将动态递归的可计算一般均衡方法应用于碳关税征收影响的研究,建立了测算美国征收碳关税对中国经济与环境影响的动态递归可计算一般均衡模型,并在模型中引入技术进步参数以刻画能源节约型技术进步.模型以2007年作为基年,包含37个生产部门和7个国内国外账户.应用该模型模拟了2020年起美国征收碳关税,在税率从20美元每吨碳排放到80美元每吨碳排放的13种情景下,到2030年期间对我国碳排放和经济发展的不同影响,进而测算在不同的能源节约型技术进步条件下,碳关税对我国经济与环境影响的变动.

Abstract

A recursive dynamic general equilibrium model is built to study the impacts of US' border carbon motivated adjustments on China's economy and environment under different scenarios of energy-saving technology improvement. 37 production sectors and 7 accounts are contained in the model. Based on the data of year 2007, 13 policy scenarios with border tax rate from 20 dollars per ton carbon emissions to 80 dollars per ton carbon emissions are simulated from the year 2020 up to 2030 to estimate the impacts on China's carbon emissions and economic development. Three different energy-saving technology scenarios are set to capture changes of these impacts when there is improvement
in energy-saving technology.

关键词

碳关税 / 技术进步 / 动态递归可计算一般均衡模型 / 碳排放 / 经济增长.

Key words

Carbon border motivated adjustments / energy-saving technology improvement / recursive dynamic general equilibrium model / carbon emissions / economic development.

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鲍勤 , 汤铃 , 杨烈勋 , 乔晗. 能源节约型技术进步下碳关税对中国经济与环境的影响---基于动态递归. 系统科学与数学, 2011, 31(2): 175-186. https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms09456
BAO Qin , TANG Ling , YANG Liexun , QIAO Han. HOW WILL ENERGY-SAVING TECHNOLOGY CHANGE THE IMPACTS OF CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENTS ON CHINA: AN ESTIMATION BASED ON DYNAMIC ECURSIVECOMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2011, 31(2): 175-186 https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms09456
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