Economic Policy Uncertainty and Intra-Industry Risk Spillovers: Evidence from China's Non-Financial Sector

LU shiyu, ZENG yanqi, ZHANG wei, ZHAO yang

Journal of Systems Science & Complexity ›› 2025

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PDF(157 KB)
Journal of Systems Science & Complexity ›› 2025

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Intra-Industry Risk Spillovers: Evidence from China's Non-Financial Sector

  • LU shiyu1, ZENG yanqi2, ZHANG wei1, ZHAO yang1
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Abstract

The intra-industry risk spillover is crucial in transforming individual risk into systemic risk in both the financial and non-financial sectors. Using data from non-financial listed firms in China from 2007 to 2021, we explore the impact of rising economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on intra-industry risk spillovers, as well as the moderating effects of industry vulnerability and interconnectedness. Empirical results indicate that rising EPU enhances the intra-industry risk spillover effect in the non-financial sector. Industry vulnerability, including inadequate profitability, high leverage, low liquidity, or low financialization, can exacerbate intra-industry risk spillovers. Regarding the impact of interconnectedness, policy uncertainty shocks generate a more pronounced risk spillover effect in industries with low asset redeployability or weak competition. Our study highlights that, given the shock of rising EPU, intra-industry risk spillovers exist in China's non-financial sector, which are amplified through industry vulnerability and interconnectedness, necessitating close attention from investors.

Key words

Economic policy uncertainty / Intra-industry risk spillover / Industry vulnerability / Industry interconnectedness

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LU shiyu , ZENG yanqi , ZHANG wei , ZHAO yang. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Intra-Industry Risk Spillovers: Evidence from China's Non-Financial Sector. Journal of Systems Science & Complexity, 2025

Funding

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.72271253 and 71850008,the Ministry of Education in China Project of Humanities and Social Sciences under Grant No.21YJA630124,and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.
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