Robust Estimation for Poisson Integer-Valued GARCH Models Using a New Hybrid Loss

LI Qi · CHEN Huaping · ZHU Fukang

系统科学与复杂性(英文) ›› 2021, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4) : 1578-1596.

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PDF(331 KB)
系统科学与复杂性(英文) ›› 2021, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4) : 1578-1596. DOI: 10.1007/s11424-020-9344-0

Robust Estimation for Poisson Integer-Valued GARCH Models Using a New Hybrid Loss

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Robust Estimation for Poisson Integer-Valued GARCH Models Using a New Hybrid Loss

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Abstract

The Poisson integer-valued GARCH model is a popular tool in modeling time series of counts. The commonly used maximum likelihood estimator is strongly influenced by outliers, so there is a need to develop a robust M-estimator for this model. This paper has three aims. First, the authors propose a new loss function, which is a hybrid of the tri-weight loss for relatively small errors and the exponential squared loss for relatively large ones. Second, Mallows’ quasi-likelihood estimator (MQLE) is proposed as an M-estimator and its existence, uniqueness, consistency and asymptotic normality are established. In addition, a data-adaptive algorithm for computing MQLE is given based on a datadriven selection of tuning parameters in the loss function. Third, simulation studies and analysis of a real example are conducted to illustrate the performance of the new estimator, and a comparison with existing estimators is made.

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LI Qi · CHEN Huaping · ZHU Fukang. Robust Estimation for Poisson Integer-Valued GARCH Models Using a New Hybrid Loss. 系统科学与复杂性(英文), 2021, 34(4): 1578-1596 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11424-020-9344-0
LI Qi · CHEN Huaping · ZHU Fukang. Robust Estimation for Poisson Integer-Valued GARCH Models Using a New Hybrid Loss. Journal of Systems Science and Complexity, 2021, 34(4): 1578-1596 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11424-020-9344-0
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